January 8th, 2024 is a date that will be remembered for a long time in NHL circles and especially in Toronto as William Nylander signed one of the biggest contract extensions in the NHL. His 8-year, 92 mil., contract kicks in at the start of the next year with an annual cap hit of 11.5 mil. With that contract, he became the 6th highest player in the league on a yearly basis behind league superstars in Nathan MacKinnon, Connor McDavid, Artemi Panarin, and Auston Matthews. 

Let’s start with a term of 8 years as he will play that last year of his contract as a 35-year-old and will likely be at the end of his career as I don’t see him playing into his late thirties. To all of that add a no-move clause that only a few players in the league should have and those are real gamebrakes like Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid, even David Pastrnak doesn’t have that, a player who proved he can score 60 goals along with 100+ point season. 

Nylander is coming off a career year in 2022/23 with 40 goals and “only” 87 points and with a hot start of the season with 57 points in 39 games Maple Leafs management decided that he was a top 10 player in the league on a small sample size are you ask me if you are committing to a player for 8 years on that type of salary. 

Since signing an extension he has only 3 points in 5 games and all of those came in a game against the San Jose Sharks who are by far the worst team in the league. He has improved in each of the last three years and is a great offensive player at this point of his career as he ranks 4th in the league in shots on goal with 184 shots this season only behind Pastrnak, MacKinnon, and Kucherov. He has started playing on the penalty kill this season as they needed to raise his value but I don’t like to see him in that part of the game as he mostly thinks about scoring goals and getting points and players like Marner, Kampf, Jarnkrok and even Auston Matthews are better in that part of the game. Nylander’s defensive play isn’t responsible for him to play against top players on his own line (without Matthews or Marner) just like we see over the last week as Marner and Matthews went against MacKinnon and McDavid. 

Just a quick look at yesterday’s game against the Oilers Marner played 25:05, Matthews 23:03 as they went against McDavid in the elite matchup as Keefe put them out there as much as they could handle as that Mathhews-Marner line was on the ice for both Leafs goals against McDavid. Nylander played “only” 18:38 as he isn’t a player you would trust defensively in that matchup. The game against the Oilers was his fourth stright game without him recording a point and a lot of question marks were raised as this could potentially be a signing that puts the Maple Leafs on the back foot for 8 more years.

What does this contract mean for Mitch Marner and John Tavares? It is simple in Taveres’s case as he won’t be able to sign more than 3 mil. annual extension if this team wants to be competitive. His play is dropping each year and his best years have gone by. He can still give you 25 goals and 60 points for a few years but having him leading the second line isn’t an option with many younger and faster centers around the league. 

If I was Toronto’s GM at the start of the season I would ask myself a question and that would have been who do I want to keep: Mitch Marner or William Nylander? For me, the answer would have been Mitch Marner as he is a great all-around player who can do everything you ask him to do and has proved that over the year, unlike William Nylander. How much is Mitch Marner worth to Toronto now, we know he wants to take less the 12 mil. per year as believes he is a better player who plays responsible hockey, cares for the team and if we look at the numbers across their careers has much better stats than Nylander. If Toronto wants to challenge for the cup they need to let him go as having Matthews with 13 mil., Nylander with 11.5 mil. and Marner with 12+ mil. isn’t a recipe to win the cup at this time in the NHL. 

I will leave you with one though, starting July 1st, 2024 Mikko Rantanen and Leon Draisaitl are eligible for extation, and given that Nylander got 11.5 mil. per year what type of annual money do Rantanen and Draisaitl desire as proven top 10 players in the league? If you ask me 15+ mil. by that standard, but be sure that they will likely end up in that Nylander range with Rantanen possibly taking less than 11.5 mil.

Good luck to the Maple Leafs fans as another 10 hard years are in front of you with this contract.